Cost Competitiveness Analysis of Biomass and Coal-based Synfuels with CCS

Abstract

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a low carbon energy strategy that may advance climate change mitigation efforts for the transportation and power sectors. The widespread adoption of BECCS will be determined by both the cost of energy production processes and the potential for significant GHG emissions reductions. This thesis assesses the cost competitiveness of a specific BECCS pathway under uncertainty about technological efficiencies and energy market conditions. The technological model is adapted from Liu et al. (2011) for the production of biomass and coal-based Fischer-Tropsch Liquids with co-product electricity generation and CCS. A Bayesian Belief Network is developed to analyze the impact of uncertainty in production factors on the estimated cost of synfuels. Bayesian analyses are also applied to identify optimal production conditions under a number of constraints. The results of this thesis prove that the capital cost and technological efficiencies most strongly impact the cost of the synfuels, while the deployment of CCS critically defines the environmental value of the energy produced. The selection of an optimal feedstock ratio of biomass and coal is an essential factor when it comes to meeting cost competitiveness and GHG emissions avoidance.