Blood in the Oil: The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline and America’s Response

Abstract

The Nord Stream 2 is a natural gas pipeline that is under construction as of the publication of this paper. The pipeline will allow the Russian Federation to export oil directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea which will allow better access to the rest of Western Europe. The project is controversial in Europe due to concerns of energy security, the economic damage it will cause to Ukraine and Eastern Europe, suspicions of corruption, and accusations of international destabilization of Europe by Russia. As such, the political situation has become tense. While the United States is not directly affected by the Nord Stream 2, American politicians have largely denounced the Nord Stream 2. Members of both houses of Congress have signed bipartisan agreements to impose sanctions against Russia and the Nord Stream 2. While the US has been imposing sanctions against Russia ever since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, no concrete plan for these sanctions has occurred as of the writing of this paper. This thesis answers the following question: how will the US’s actions against the Nord Stream 2 affect its international political standing and the rest of the world? While these so-called “actions” are expected to only involve sanctions, the phrasing has been left intentionally ambiguous as sanctions are not the only possible strategy the US can employ. To answer this question, I have developed a set of hypothetical scenarios, each representing a different general intensity of action taken by the US and discuss the likely reactions of affected countries and changes in the world as a whole. Through these hypothetical scenarios, I find that the conflict will remain relatively unimportant so long as the United States does not attempt to intentionally escalate the conflict to the point where Russia feels as though its national security is at risk. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, despite the bad reputation among many of the countries of Europe, is a very localized problem. The stakes are low for all countries except for Ukraine which lacks the strength to have any major impact upon the pipeline. As long as the United States keeps the sanctions within a level that its own population would consider responsible, then no major impact will result except for worsening relations with Russia somewhat if Germany. If the United States decides to act in such a way that would make it appear to be intentionally escalating the conflict, then this may result in increased violent conflict in Ukraine and Syria along with greater tensions from other rivals, especially China.