THE TRUMP EFFECT: A SECTOR SPECIFIC ANALYSIS OF MARKET MOVEMENTS FOLLOWING THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Abstract

On November 9, 2016, Donald Trump was named the 45th President of theUnited States. This result was highly unexpected as was the incredible stockmarket rally that ensued following election night. This research takes a closerlook at how the election outcome impacted the financial markets. Our researchpresents a new way to conduct a presidential election event study throughapplication of the regression discontinuity methodology. Through analysis of16 sector specific indices, we provide evidence that a) the election outcome wasunexpected, b) anticipated future policies are reflected in asset prices, and c) theelection outcome caused a disjoint in asset price movements.