U.S. Presidential Peacemaking: How Presidents Nixon, Carter, and Clinton Shape Our Understanding of International Mediation

Abstract

During the last century, international mediation has emerged as a prominent foreign policy approach to resolving conflict. Even with the rise of multilateral institutions, the United States often inhabits this role of mediator, as a result of its broad range of global interests and position of power. This thesis analyzes four attempts at international mediation by the United States, utilizing an individual-level lens in order to assess the importance of the specific mediators in contributing to success or failure of each negotiation. Evaluating the role of the individual, within the context of many other important factors, serves to improve our understanding of the prospects of future peace deals under our new American President, famously known for his ability to make deals. This thesis focuses on three key aspects of the intermediary that influence the prospects of resolution: ability to build trust, adaptivity, and knowledge and preparation. Although not making a causal argument, within each case study I argue that contextualizing the contribution of the individual proves essential in improving our understanding of the ultimate outcome. In Chapter I, I examine the literature of international relations, negotiation, and psychology to assert the value of using an individual-level lens, and specifically these three aspects of the contribution of the individual. Then, in Chapters II-V, I document the relative importance of these characteristics across the case studies of U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East, President Jimmy Carter at Camp David, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Richard Holbrooke at Dayton, and President Bill Clinton at Camp David, using personal records that exist from each negotiation, as well as other academic analyses of the events that transpired. Lastly, in Chapter VI, I apply the lessons learned from these four experiences to evaluate the early foreign policy decisions President Donald Trump has made regarding a potential Middle East peace deal. Furthermore, I provide four policy recommendations on how to integrate the findings from the history of modern U.S. Presidential peacemaking and best support future attempts at international mediation by our commander-in-chief.