Defending the Eastern Front: The United States and NATO's Effect on the State of Lithuanian National Security

Abstract

How has NATO membership affected the state of Lithuania’s national security? This is the driving question behind this thesis. NATO membership has allowed for Lithuania to grow as a sovereign and independent nation. Their military is larger and stronger than ever and is showing that they have great potential as a member of NATO. Throughout their first fifteen years NATO, Lithuania has continued to face challenges to their nation’s security. Most of these have derived from their tense relationship with Russia. I hypothesize that Lithuania’s main threats no longer situate themselves as conventional warfare threats, but rather hybrid warfare threats and poor leadership within the NATO alliance itself. The main sources of this thesis were international security journals, news outlets, and books. Interviews were done with experts in this field as well. American and foreign think tanks were utilized to consider opinions from different sides of the issues and provide possible guidance for policy solutions. In order to familiarize the reader with what this relationship has been like, I analyze perspectives from the Lithuanian, Russian, and American angles. From the moment they regained their freedom from the Soviet Union in 1990, the majority of Lithuanians have desired to be a part of a strong democratic alliance like NATO; one that could protect and secure their rights as a newly freed nation. They faced much resistance from Russia then, and they continue to face resistance from Russia today. The United States distant support of Lithuania played a big factor in helping Lithuania gain the independence they sought following the Cold War and also played a significant role in vouching for Lithuania to become a part of NATO. Today, Lithuania faces some of the same threats that it did when it was yearning for NATO membership, but new threats have also developed. The Russian threat of invasion and conventional warfare is still present today, but it has diminished from being the most urgent threat to a lesser threat in today’s modern world. Today, Lithuania’s greatest threats lie in the hybrid warfare category and within the NATO alliance itself. They consistently face thousands of cyber threats, ranging from attacks on entire communication systems to anti-state propaganda campaigns. On top of these issues, Turkey has gotten in the way of a possible solution to some of Lithuania’s issues. They are the only one of NATO’s 29 members to reject the proposed Baltic Defense Plan, which could greatly help Lithuania’s situation. Multiple policy recommendations are included. First, the U.S. and NATO must put more troops on Lithuania’s borders and promote the growth of a well-rounded NATO force in the Baltic region. This will act as the token of commitment that Lithuania is looking for with regards to the collective defense principle of NATO. Additionally, the U.S. and NATO ought to invest in the rapidly developing Lithuanian cyber defense force. Next, they need to persuade Lithuania to continue to purchase more liquid natural gas from the United States and non-Russian sources in order to lessen their dependency on Russian resources. Following this, the leaders of NATO need to facilitate a more open relationship between Lithuania and Russia that will calm tensions on their shared border. Finally, NATO must show priority to a proven and dedicated member like Lithuania when dealing with inter-NATO tension, like there currently is between Turkey and the Baltic States.