The Impact of Weather Patterns on New Jersey Wine Quality An investigation of the current and future viability of premium cabernet sauvignon production in the Outer Coastal Plain American Viticultural Area

Abstract

The quality and price of wine vintages can be predicted by the weather patterns thatcreated the wine grapes (Ashenfelter 2008). This paper investigates the influence ofvarious climatic variables on the quality of cabernet sauvignon produced in the OuterCoastal Plain American Viticultural Area (AVA) in southeastern New Jersey, andpredicts the future viability of premium wine production given projected shifts in weatherpatterns in the region. The results indicate that growing season temperature, diurnaltemperature range, amount of August rainfall, and amount of precipitation in the monthspreceding the vintage have significant impacts on wine scores, and these patterns areconsistent with relationships established in investigations of other wine regions.Furthermore, the climate change predictions for this region increase the likelihood of avintage receiving at least a “premium” quality rating from the current likelihood of 55.8%to 88.2% by 2060. This supports the hypothesis that this wine-growing region is viablefor high-quality red wine production given predicted shifts in temperature andprecipitation in the coming decades. Because New Jersey has ample acreage for vineyarddevelopment, and domestic demand for local red wine at premium price levels is growingrapidly and projected to continue to rise, it is important to understand the potential abilityof the region to successfully produce high-quality red wine. Thus, the evaluation of theviability of premium cabernet sauvignon production in the region given current andfuture weather conditions is important for optimizing viticulture site selection, andprofitable agricultural allocations, within the Outer Coastal Plain AVA.