Taking a Shot at Measles Elimination: Measles Dynamics and Control by Vaccination in Philippine National Epidemics from 2008 to 2017

Abstract

In the past several years, measles has been the target for elimination by worldwide health organizations. A viral disease commonly affecting school-aged children, measles in the pre-vaccination era has claimed the lives of millions of people. With improvements in sanitation and health infrastructure, increased knowledge in disease transmission, and most importantly, the advent of a successful and effective vaccine, the worldwide disease burden has dramatically declined in the past several decades.

Despite vast advancements in disease control, measles outbreaks continue to resurface every few years. The purpose of this thesis is to explore measles dynamics in the Philippines from 2008 to 2017, specifically examining how control by vaccination has shaped the landscape, both nationally and regionally. Analysis hones in on several parameters such as population size, population density and spatial relationships across regions to help address the role of vaccination control. A secondary aim of this study was to determine how R effective has changed as a response to fluctuating vaccination rates during the ten- year period.

Study findings showed that population size and population density have direct effects on number of cases. The pattern for how vaccination trends affect disease burden is less clear because of regional differences in demographics, and an assumed value of R0 at 15. However, by viewing the demography in conjunction with vaccination rates, it can be seen that vaccines play a crucial role in disease control.