Assessing A Disaggregate Travel Demand Model In Oslo and Its Implications On Ride Sharing and Autonomous Taxis

Abstract

With the prospect of autonomous taxis and large-scale personal rapid transit networks becoming more apparent, studies need to be conducted with respect to what the level of demand and opportunity for providing greater accessibility in both populated urban areas and sparser rural areas is to fully assess the feasibility of such a service for the general populace. Significant in-roads have been made into modeling the disaggregate demand for transportation in the US; however, little has been done in applying this model to other countries. This thesis leverages previous work and data sources drawn from a variety of data gathering agencies in Norway to simulate daily transportation demand in Oslo to generate approximately 2.1 million of the 667,000 residents that call Oslo home, of which about 30% of them are taken using a personal vehicle. These vehicle trips are then replaced using a fleet of aTaxis to analyze the potential benefits that such a ride-sharing system could unlock in Oslo. Not only does the average vehicle occupancy increase from about 1.5 to 1.88, but the total vehicle miles traveled decreases by about 15%, the costs associated with transportation in Oslo by car decrease by 25% which leads to project yearly cost savings of $550 million. The trips generated by this thesis can also be used as spring board to further the analysis of transportation in Oslo and the effects that different ride-sharing systems can and will have.