Russian Disinformation: Why do the European Union Countries have Diverging Responses to this Common Threat?

Abstract

Background: Russian disinformation is a mode of hostile influence that seeks to generate resentment towards existing Western institutions and to stoke a country-by-country break up of the European Union (EU). The EU countries have had differing levels of response to the common threat, with some countries employing a much wider range of policies to address disinformation than others. Why is there this variation in response, and what can it tell us about which countries might be most vulnerable and in need of external support?

Objectives: The objective of my thesis is to identify which country-level characteristics (distance from Russia, level of democracy, income inequality, etc.) are the best correlative predictors of a country’s range of counter-disinformation policy (the number of distinct policies a certain country has implemented).

Methods: I operationalize my dependent variable - Range of Policy by organizing the policies implemented across the EU into categories based on their objectives. I then measure Range of Policy as the number of different objectives the policies of each EU country address- this indicates how many distinct policies each country has implemented. Next, I introduce 13 country-level characteristics (my independent variables), and I hypothesize that Geographic Distance (from Russia) will emerge as the strongest predictor. Finally, I conduct a regression analysis on my dependent and independent variables to assess which were the strongest predictors of Range of Policy.

Findings: My hypothesis was partially supported. Three independent variables: Geographic Distance, Democracy Index and Immigrants as a Proportion of Population were the strongest correlative predictors of Range of Policy. In essence, my model predicted that countries closer to Russia would have a wider range of policy, countries that were more strongly democratic would have a wider range of policy, and countries that had fewer immigrants would have a wider range of policy.

Conclusions and Policy Implications: The correlative relationships that my thesis uncovers can guide international actors to better assess which countries are most at risk, and what kind of support should be afforded to these countries. It can also help domestic policymakers better assess their own vulnerability to disinformation and in doing so, formulate more informed counter-disinformation strategies.