Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries

Abstract

What types of defense policies do states pursue and how do these policies change over time? This question is central to understanding state behavior, yet it has been understudied. This dissertation proposes a theory of perceived relative power that explains how states alter their defense policies in response to perceived changes in relative power. This hypothesis suggests that as states go through cycles of rise and decline, their leaders alter national objectives (ends), security strategies (ways), and military investments (means) in predictable patterns. States prioritize different military capabilities depending on whether they are rising or declining and strong or weak. This theory helps to explain the rise and decline of great militaries, including the likely next steps in the military competition between the United States and China.