The Social Impact of Revolutionizing Travel: A Policy Approach Concerning Self-Driving Technology

Abstract

The present research intends to evaluate the impact of autonomous vehicle implementation on the U.S. Economy, specifically in hopes of mitigating any undesirable outcomes. The distribution of self-driving automobiles on a grand scale could ultimately maximize efficiencies concerning travel, safety, and financial opportunity. However, the technology could also displace a significant percentage of the current labor force in the United States. It is estimated that the introduction of this technology could oust entire industries within the next few decades, possibly even sooner. This potential occurrence of displacement is identified as the concept of “creative destruction,” which was theorized by economist Joseph Schumpeter in 1941. In essence, it is the idea that capitalistic structures inherently require economic downturn to experience future progress. I hypothesize that the nature of autonomous vehicle implementation will function in a more severe manner than other instances of creative destruction. Therefore, if the negative results of self-driving technology outweigh the positive effects, then we must consider partially hindering the progression of this technology via the application of public policy. The research to assess this claim was conducted by identifying plausible benefits and drawbacks of the technological innovation and applying these estimates to a linear projection of GDP growth (via the work of Professor Robert J. Gordon). The values concerning autonomous technology impact were quantified by assessing a variety of databases and analysis, then discounting them to align with projections made concerning yearly implementation (initially estimated by the RAND Corporation). Although the results of my analysis did not entirely align with my hypothesis, it is still vital to hedge against potential adverse outcomes, for an excess of unanticipated and unforeseen variables could drastically alter the real-world results. Further research is required to efficiently magnify the potentially remarkable benefits of autonomous technology without simultaneously hindering the lower class and those negatively impacted by its widespread adaptation. It seems beneficial to move forward with the technology in a cautious manner, for if the technology is adapted too quickly, jobs and lives alike could be lost.