Predicting Terrorism with Climate Change: A Study of Engineering Capabilities in Climate Risk and Sociocultural Vulnerability in Africa

Abstract

This thesis presents a data driven, integrative approach to analyzing climate change as a one disruptive event in Africa that can lead to the spread of extremism. Using data fusion methods, it will examine the climate change from a Risk Management perspective, including both the hazard elements and exposure elements. Unlike any work before, this thesis explores a more engineering focused examination of the climate risks, and begins to determine not only the risk but also the ability of a region’s infrastructure to handle and combat a disruptive event. The results of this thesis also include an interface that incorporates user inputs into an interactive and intuitive decision-making tool for interested parties. Finally, the project concludes with the implications these analyses have on identifying key susceptible populations in developing Africa to Extremist Violent Organizations such as Boko Haram, al Shabaab, and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.