An Analysis of Television Show Viewership Growth through SIR Virus Models

Abstract

In today's society the word "viral" has taken on new meaning. It has escaped beyond its original domain of biology and has entered the world of popular culture in order to describe media with explosive growth in viewership. This concept of contagious ideas is reflected in qualitative research on the spread of ideas, but for the most part it has not yet been translated into mathematical work. This thesis creates a model which uses the concept of contagion to quantifiably analyze the spread of television show viewership. The Television Viewership Contagion Model developed by this thesis utilizes SIR virus models, created by biologists to study the spread of epidemics through well-mixed populations, to model and predict the growth in TV Show viewership. The Television Viewership Contagion Model draws upon previous applications of the SIR model to both emotional and social contagion in order to simulate how interest in a television program spreads through a population.