Battering Ram, Achilles’ Heel, or Trojan Horse: An Exploration into Nord Stream II’s Strategic Significance

Abstract

The Russian pipeline system has long been a point of international contestation and concern in regards to energy security, beginning with the Great Wars and culminating with the creation of the Reagan Doctrine between 1983-1989. The Doctrine, which entailed military buildup, development of strategic weaponry, and the rollback of global insurgencies, applied intense outside pressure and economic warfare on an already stagnant economy rife with internal elite conflicts. Ultimately, this helped bring about the collapse of the Soviet Union. Pipelines were at the heart of this situation and, along with sanctions, were used in the Doctrine’s three-pronged approach to destroy the strategic triad that could have prevented the Union’s downfall. In the present day, we are seeing the resurgence of past history through Russia’s efforts to reestablish itself as a global superpower. The Reagan Doctrine once again has become applicable as it can be used as a lens to analyze Nord Stream II and support the newly posited Trojan Horse theory. In comparison to the current Battering Ram and Achilles’ Heel theories, the Trojan Horse theory seeks to establish a new assumption of intent coupled with the start of economic warfare. By comparison, current issues are defined by the strategic role that pipelines play in the long term and the sphere of influence that passes through pipes to various regions in Europe, the Middle East, and China. Military buildup is also now substituted as large economic investments in pipelines, which has resulted in the energy sector propping up the Russian economy. In this thesis, I examine the role of Nord Stream II in grand strategy through three competing theories of intent: the Battering Ram theory, the Achilles Heel theory, and the Trojan Horse theory. Through the lens of the Reagan Doctrine and the outcome of previous pipeline conflicts, I seek to show the true nature of Nord Stream II as a strategic pipeline that will dictate the future of the EU and of Russia. Through the newly posited Trojan Horse theory regarding Nord Stream II, I hope to answer my research question: To what extent is Nord Stream II a strategic tool to be used to curtail Russian influence in Europe? More specifically, is the general resistance to Nord Stream II a planned attempt to weaken Russia financially, set them back technologically, and redirect funds from feasible infrastructure into a ‘worthless’ pipeline? As such, due to the volatile nature of energy projects and politics surrounding them, this thesis specifically does not focus solely on Nord Stream II, but also on the EU-Russian LNG vs. pipeline system in general. I seek to find the value of the Nord Stream II project, whether is it beneficial or harmful, and what may possibly replace it in the future. Lastly, if this or similar projects were to be implemented, I present the possible short- and long-term outlooks that may be integral to changing energy policies.