THE EFFECT OF CRIME VICTIMIZATION ON INSTITUTIONAL DISENFRANCHISEMENT AND POLITICAL PREFERENCES IN MEXICO

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of criminal victimization on political preferences in Mexico at the state level. Using the LAPOP dataset for the ten-year time period from 2004 to 2014, this paper explores and analyzes the disenfranchisement of political institutions and its potential ideological repercussions. Findings suggest that individuals who have been victims of a crime are less trusting of state and political institutions at different levels, yet this mistrust does not shift people’s preferences away from the political party of the incumbent governor, but make them identify with it more strongly. The analysis considers the difference between criminal victimization and safety perception, the direction in which victims might shift towards on a left to right political spectrum, and the placement of the three main Mexican political parties on the aforementioned scale. The paper concludes with a discussion of the political implications of the findings in the Mexican context.