“The People” Have Spoken: Explaining the Rise of Populism in Mexico and Brazil

Abstract

The global rise of populism in the last decade has been cause for alarm to many, and predictions of doom and gloom for democracy abound. Mexico and Brazil joined this populist wave in 2018 with the election of Jair Bolsonaro and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), respectively. Although the new presidents in both countries had vastly different economic platforms throughout their campaigns, they have been labeled as two representations of this global political phenomenon, and have, thus, caused alarm as well. With the renewed attention that populism has received in the media, it is worth inspecting a fundamental question: what are the causes of populism? More specifically, what economic and political factors led to the rise of populism in Mexico and Brazil? Using quantitative analysis of public opinion data and economic metrics, this thesis concludes that a decrease in government legitimacy was the most important factor in the populist swing in both countries. The two-year period leading up to the elections saw a marked decrease in trust in the president, electoral parties, and the elections, as well as a significant increase in the perception that the economy was doing poorly – all of which opened room in the national political contestation arena for new players to enter. Importantly, while perceptions that the economy was doing poorly increased sharply, the countries’ economies were not contracting. This notes an important divide between reality and perception upon which populism hinges. Further, this highlights the importance of perception and loss of faith in the crises of legitimacy that wrought the populist swing in both countries. These findings allow us to understand the populist electoral swing in Mexico and Brazil as an important reflection of the countries’ citizens’ concerns with the perceived or real shortcomings of democracy, which ought to be addressed with appropriate public policy responses.