Water for biodiversity and food: Neutral model, network analysis, and predictions under change

Abstract

Global freshwater resources are facing increasing pressures from population growth, increased economic prosperity, and climate change. Terrestrial plant systems that rely on freshwater resources will be impacted by changes in their availability. Forests and agriculture are two globally important plant systems that are tightly coupled with the availability of freshwater. In this dissertation, I examine links between hydrology and tree diversity, as well as the relationship between water, food, and trade.

The first theme of my dissertation explores the intersection between ecology and hydrology. In particular, I focus on links between species diversity and freshwater resources. First, I explore the relationship between freshwater resources and tree diversity using a neutral model. I then present a synthesis of the key hydrologic drivers of biological diversity. My work on hydrology and biodiversity is presented in Chapters 2-3.

The second theme of my dissertation investigates the intersection between economics and hydrology. Specifically, I explore how water and food systems are linked through international trade, in a `global virtual water trade'. First, I quantify the structure of global virtual water trade using a network perspective. Next, I examine the distinguishing characteristics of virtual water trade by water source. Finally, I project global virtual water trade under climate change. My work on virtual water trade is presented in Chapters 4-6.

The unifying theme of my dissertation is to better understand these complex systems in order to predict how they may change in the future. I explore how projected changes in rainfall patterns may impact tree diversity in Chapter 2. I quantify projected changes in virtual water trade in Chapter 6.