Presidential Popularity and Legislative Success: A Qualitative Examination of Popularity and Healthcare Legislation in Four Presidential Administrations

Abstract

In this study I critically examine the existing literature surrounding presidential popularity and its impact on legislative success. Previous research shows that high issue complexity, public appeals, significant media coverage and high issue salience are conditions that must be met in order for presidential popularity to function effectively. Most of these studies employ quantitative methods to determine on-average effects, thus de-prioritizing intricacies in the policy making process that are essential to understanding legislative outcomes. I seek to close this methodological gap in the research by analyzing several cases involving presidential healthcare policy through process tracing. While the above conditions are important to this analysis, I argue that not all are necessary. I contend that significant media coverage and high issue salience are two non-essential conditions when a president has high popularity. Further, I propose a fourth condition: high public preference. I argue that high public preference, or positive public approval of the policy, is the necessary conditions that enables Presidents to convert their popularity into Congressional influence.