A Changing Dynamic: Understanding China’s Willingness to Pressure North Korea in Denuclearization

Abstract

lear tests prevail, they also have become seemingly more dangerous and disturbing. Historically, China has been known as one of North Korea’s only allies, due to its economic support. Therefore, China has found itself in a difficult position in the North Korea nuclear dilemma. On the one hand, it does not want North Korea to have these nuclear capabilities. China, being North Korea’s ally, also does not want the North Korean regime to collapse, nor does it desire for its own security to be at risk. This creates a complicated predicament for the rest of the world – what can be done? More specifically, how do different factors affect China’s willingness to pressure North Korea to denuclearize? This thesis answers this question and delves deeper into the situation by analyzing three important factors that drive China’s behavior and approach to North Korea. The hypothesis of this thesis is that China is willing to pressure North Korea on denuclearization not only when it has good relations with the United States, but also when China feels that its security is being threatened and there is an assurance that the United States will not pursue regime change in North Korea. This thesis specifically intervenes in the existing scholarly conversation by including U.S.-China relations as a key factor. In order to test the hypothesis, this thesis evaluates five case studies of various time periods: 1993-1994, 2002-2003, 2005-2007, 2010, and 2017. These case studies provide an in-depth analysis of the three factors, and how they have affected China’s behavior in the past. Through this analysis, the hypothesis is upheld and supported in different contexts. This thesis seeks to give a better understanding of the situation at-hand and inform future policy decisions on how to approach the North Korea nuclear problem.