The Effects of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansions on Crime

Abstract

This paper explores the effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansions on crime. Using data on all part I criminal offenses from the National Incident-Based Report System and information on health insurance from the American Community Survey, I first run a Differences-in Differences model and then I use a Synthetic Control Approach. I compare crime rates in states that chose to expand Medicaid versus those that chose not to expand, before and after implementation. I find that Medicaid expansions are associated with a significant increase in total crime rate by 0.0734 cases per 1,000 residents among young black adults. I find no significant relationship between Medicaid expansions and crime rates among young black adults below poverty line, young white adults, or young female adults.