Mind the Gap: A Quantitative Analysis of the Corruption Exposure-Perception Gap in Post-Communist E.U. Member States

Abstract

This thesis characterizes the effect of exposure to petty corruption on perceptions of corruption in the local and central governments of postcommunist members of the European Union. It addresses three questions: what is the effect of exposure to corruption on individuals’ perceptions of corruption in local institutions? How do these views of the local officials affect perceptions of corruption in the central government? How can the EU and EU member states use this information to inform Union-wide and nation-specific anti-corruption policies and monitoring systems? I find that corrupt interactions with local officials directly increase perceptions of corruption in local and central government institutions, while clean interactions decrease perceptions. Local corruption also affects central government perceptions indirectly via perceptions of corruption in the local government. A test for the effect of government decentralization on the strength of the relationship between local corruption exposure and perceptions of corruption in the central government finds a weak and inconsistent effect of decentralization on central government perceptions. These findings suggest that while citizens use their personal experiences to inform their views of corruption at levels of government they cannot observe, they are not discerning in assigning blame for corruption towards those who are most responsible for it, or able to fix it. These findings suggest that experiences with petty corruption increase general perceptions of corruption, but are not targeted towards specific institutions. This diffusion of perceptions indicates a need to improve civic education so that those who are responsible for corruption feel pressure to address it.