MITIGATING ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH DAMAGES: OPPORTUNITIES FROM CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND FOOD CONSUMPTION PRACTICES IN CHINA

Abstract

Unsustainable agricultural production and recent dietary shifts in China, have resulted in severe environmental damage including water and air pollution, climate warming and resource depletion as well as dietary health concerns. My dissertation identifies opportunities that changes in agricultural production and diets offer for mitigation of environmental and health damages. It includes three analytical chapters.

Chapter 2 analyzes technological, social and policy options for increasing nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) in Chinese agriculture based on a literature review and data collection. I find that adopting NUE-increasing fertilizer application management brings yield benefit that is much larger than other types of benefit (labor savings, fertilizer purchase savings, reactive nitrogen emission reduction, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction). We provide policy solutions that incentivize smallholders and large farmers to improve practices.

Chapter 3 analyzes the opportunities of improved production management in agricultural production to simultaneously address China’s PM2.5 air pollution and low nitrogen use efficiency (NUE). I identify five agricultural nitrogen management technologies and estimate the NH3 emission reduction and associated PM2.5 air quality improvements in 2012. Using additional data, I quantify the yield effects, GHG emission mitigation, nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) improvements, water pollution reduction, and acid rain and nitrogen deposition impacts. Midrange benefits from all strategies of US$30 billion/annum exceed costs of US$18 billion/annum.

Chapter 4 analyzes the implications of four potential future Chinese dietary choices. We find opportunities for improving PM2.5 air quality, i.e., shifting from current diets to a Soy Replace Red Meat Diet and a Lancet-EAT Diet respectively reduces 37% and 18% national NH3 emissions and up to 12ug/m3 PM2.5 pollution locally. We also find opportunities for improving dietary health, with negative or positive environmental impacts. Shifting from current diet to a Chinese Dietary Guideline Diet, Lancet-EAT Diet and Soy Replace Red Meat Diet, respectively, avoid 1.4, 1.1 and 0.3 million diet-related premature mortalities. However, shifting towards Soy Replace Red Meat Diet reduces food-related greenhouse gas emissions, water and land use; yet shifting towards Chinese Dietary Guideline Diet and Lancet-EAT Diet worsens these impacts.

Chapter 5 summarizes the findings of this dissertation and proposes future research.